Coping with the Post-Pandemic Commute

The US Centers for Disease Control, CDC, has issued interim guidance for businesses and employers as employees start returning to work while the COVID-19 crisis is still ongoing. Some of these guidelines are outright environmentally detrimental, which is both ironic and shortsighted given that it is clearly established that the pandemic is a direct result of environmental abuse and degradation. It is a clear indication of the challenges we face if a high-level scientific body like CDC is unable to think more holistically and only focuses narrowly on its immediate mandate.

Most of the measures recommended by CDC are necessary. These include hazards assessments and improving ventilation systems at work places, as well as requiring workers to wear protective masks and enforcing social distancing. These are needed because in the US—unlike in some other countries (notably in East Asia) where government action was early and decisive and the public responses were disciplined—the pandemic is nowhere near its end. In fact, despite the upbeat atmosphere and hopeful calls for a summer of freedom, we still see thousands of new infections and hundreds of deaths on a daily basis. It is great that there are responsible and sober-minded adults, like those at the CDC, who keep realism in the picture. I have nothing but respect for that.

What I am talking about pertains to the parts of the guidelines that state:

"If feasible, offer employees incentives to use forms of transportation that minimize close contact with others (e.g., biking, walking, driving or riding by car either alone or with household members)."

None of us is clamoring to get on a crowded subway or bus during peak rush hour, but encouraging people to ride alone in their private cars should not be the default solution. That would serve to turn back time by several decades. We know that for many Americans driving is virtually the only transport option. Effective public transportation is available only in a limited number of large cities, mostly on the East Coast. It has taken decades to build up the infrastructure, which still is far from perfect even in the best places.

Take New York City. The Second Avenue subway line, that was initially proposed in the 1920s, has been under construction since 1972. The first three stations uptown only opened in 2017. The project has faced many headwinds over the decades, from fiscal crises to political and resident opposition, reflecting generally how hard it is to promote public transportation (or any other public service, for that matter) in the United States. Contrast that with how Beijing expanded its subway system by 40% (at a cost of $3.3 billion) in just about 3 years during the build-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics.  This would be possible even in the States, if the political will were there.

Encouraging employers to subsidize private car use for commuting would be a further blow to the development of sensible transport policies. Note further that the CDC guidance calls for people to drive either alone or with household members, so even carpooling is off the books. Incentives would presumably include free or subsidized parking and perhaps gas money (currently, in Washington, DC, where I live, many employers subsidize employees’ metro and bus fares). This would inevitably lead to increased congestion, not only in the city but on the roads towards it (again in DC, the surrounding Beltway is already notorious for its hellish traffic).

Apart from congestion, the increased car traffic would reverse all the benefits that we’ve gained in terms of reduced air pollution, which in itself is a huge factor in human health. In fact, the lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 crisis have had a significant positive effect on global air pollution levels as traffic and industrial production have been suppressed. Research reported in the Lancet detected measurable mortality reductions in China in response to the reduced air pollution levels. In this case, CDC is thus sacrificing the long-term health of citizens for short-term control of the pandemic.

To be fair, the CDC guidance first mentions walking and biking as preferred modes of commuting, as they should be. The problem of course is that these are challenging options for many people who either live too far from work or who live in places where safe infrastructure—such as sidewalks or biking lanes—are missing. And there are so many such places in the USA, while Europe in particular is way ahead in this respect.

Much depends on urban planning and city design. And transportation is key: how can people move where they have to go—and equally importantly, how far do they have to go. Public transportation should and will remain important but it needs to be made safer through improving health and hygiene measures. Rides on crowded subways have been understandably reduced everywhere but there are things that can be done to make them safer and more pleasant. The peak morning rush hour ridership in Tokyo’s famously packed subway system decreased by nearly 60% between the end of January and end of May 2020. In Seoul, South Korea, one of the most successful places to curb the pandemic early on, crews disinfect the stations after the last train of the night has gone. While New York City has recently restored its subway and bus services during daytime, the MTA has suspended overnight service indefinitely. On June 10, 2020, the New York Times reported that the subway has never been as clean as it is now.

A key to a safe mass transit seems to be to manage passenger numbers, especially at peak hours. This would point to the need to maintain regular schedules—and increase the number of trains and buses, rather than the opposite like has been the tendency in some places. What businesses and employers can do is to regularize telework, so that fewer people have to take the transport at the same given time. If more people can work more of the time from home and if the hours spent at the office are more flexible, then the peaks can be evened out. Of course, these solutions only apply to office workers. People in services and other essential professions will still need to keep regular schedules, but reducing the need for office workers at specific times would still make a big difference in commuter numbers.

Where private cars dominate, pedestrians are squeezed onto narrow and crowded corridors. Research has shown that widening sidewalks and reserving areas for pedestrian streets limits crowding and allows for more physical space between people. Parks provide public amenities where people can relax and which can be pleasant passages for moving from one place to another. Trees clean the air from pollutants and provide habitat for non-human animals. In continental Europe, there has long been a trend towards reserving city centers to pedestrians, from Copenhagen and Louvain to Munich and Zurich. In the US, New York again is taking some bold steps. The city has announced plans to roll out 20 miles (32 km) of new car-free bus lanes. It has also closed off some 35 miles (56 km) of streets from car traffic and created 9 miles (14 km) of protected bike lanes to allow for social distancing during the pandemic. These are a good start and one hopes they will remain permanently.

Mixed neighborhoods that combine residential and commercial uses reduce the need for transportation time and favor walking and biking.  Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo promotes the notion of a 15-minute city where citizens' needs for living, shopping, work and leisure could be met within a 15-minute radius.

Some good things have come out of the COVID-19 tragedy. Some have to do with the reduced traffic that has had a visible impact on air pollution and led to associated health benefits. We’ve also seen reports about wildlife (not only rats) reclaiming areas in urban parks and even streets. It has also led to some rethinking about how our lives and especially our urban areas could be turned into more sustainable and environmentally friendly ones. Let’s build upon these positive developments, rather than going reflexively back to our old ways.

Overall, what is good for mitigating pandemics, is also good for the environment and human health more generally. Mixed neighborhoods potentially reduce suburban sprawl. Parks provide open spaces for people, clean the air and give some room for other species. Reduced dependence on cars reduces air pollution and induces people to move more. And people will also have more leisure time with less spent commuting.