Is another massive tsunami imminent in Japan?

Fourteen years ago, Japan was devastated by one of the deadliest tsunamis in modern history. Now a prophetic manga is fueling anxiety of a repeat. Could such a calamity occur soon again?

On Friday, March 11, 2011, at 14:46 hrs, disaster struck Japan. One of the largest earthquakes—officially the Great East Japan Earthquake—on record (magnitude 9.0) occurred just off the northeast Pacific coast of the main island of Honshu. The shaking lasted for a full five minutes—a terrifyingly long time when one entirely loses orientation, may not be able to stand up, with everything falling around you, walls and houses crumbling, the rumble of the earth drowning all other sounds—triggering a massive tsunami. Because the epicenter was so close to the coast, there was hardly any warning or time to evacuate. The first waves reached the Sanriku coast in the Miyagi and Iwate Prefectures within ten minutes, completely overrunning the towns and ports leaving total destruction in their wake. Up to 18,500 people perished. The tsunami also caused the meltdown of the nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Miyagi Prefecture, the worst nuclear accident ever to hit Japan and the worst in the world only after Chernobyl.

Now some people, are again fearful to visit Japan. This is because of a manga comic, published in 1999 and re-released in 2021, warns of a catastrophe hitting Japan in July 2025. The only reason why this comic might scare people off is that it originally predicted, correctly it turned out, a major disaster in Japan in March 2011. The Future I Saw, by the artist Ryo Tatsuki, imagines a massive tsunami caused by a rupture in the undersea fault line between the Philippine and Eurasian plates. As a consequence, the number of tourists, especially from China and Hong Kong, has dropped significantly and some people have decided to postpone their trips to Japan. Tatsuki herself says that she is no prophet.

The scenario itself is not entirely unrealistic. Tsunamis are triggered by undersea events, most often large earthquakes at fault zones, but sometimes by volcanic eruptions or massive landslides deep in the ocean. The Pacific Rim where Japan is located is seismically highly active. The Sanriku Tsunami was the fifth most deadly in the past two centuries or so. The deadliest of all was the Indian Ocean Tsunami on Boxing Day of 2004 when an estimated 230,000-280,000 people perished in half a dozen countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. This was the second time the Sanriku coast was devastated by a tsunami: on June 15, 1896, another tsunami killed some 22,000 people in the same area with waves reaching the height of 30 meters.

Tsunamis are so deadly because of the massive amounts of water and the speed at which they travel. In deep water, the waves remain low but they spread fast in all directions from the epicenter. Tsunami waves have been measured to move at 800 km/h. As they approach shallower coastal waters they slow down, condense, and rise to frightening heights.

This is what destroyed so much of the Sanriku coast. Kesennuma, a port in Miyagi, was gone. I have visited the town both before and after the disaster. First the tsunami swept across the entire low-lying valley. When it receded, fires that ensued as gas pipelines were destroyed finished the job burning down the entire old wooden town. Kesennuma port had been the center of the Pacific shark fisheries just because of the shape of its natural harbor. Now this same geographic advantage had provided the tsunami with a perfect entrance to the harbor bowl allowing the water to rise unhindered into the town.

Tohoku’s largest city, Sendai, situated on higher ground and away from the sea was largely spared from major damage. The city airport closer to the coast was not so lucky. Cameras showed the massive wave sweeping slowly across the runways. Large jet planes floated away like toy models. Aerial shots from the close by mountain areas showed huge liquefaction of the soil, again in slow motion, wiping away entire villages, houses crumbling and washing down the slopes into the sea. 

So what are the chances that such a disaster repeats itself in the near future, if not later this month? It is impossible to give a precise answer to that question. Statistically, major tsunamis globally take place about twice in a decade. The likelihood of one striking a specific major urban is low but it is plausible that one of the major cities around the Pacific Ring of Fire will be struck by a large tsunami in the coming few decades.

The cities most at risk include the Tokyo-Yokohama conurbation, the largest city complex in the world with over 40 million inhabitants. This is also Japan’s economic heart, so a major disaster there would be highly destructive for the country and would disrupt the entire world economy.

Other likely targets include Manila and Jakarta on the Asian side, and Lima and Santiago de Chile in South America, as well as Los Angeles and San Francisco in California. Honolulu in the middle of the Ring of Fire is also vulnerable. In fact, all of these cities have in the past experienced disruptive earthquakes and tsunamis.

Indonesia and its capital Jakarta are particularly at risk from a repeat of an event like the 2004 earthquake and tsunami. Another risk is posed by the active volcano, Krakatoa. Its violent eruption caused a massive tsunami on August 27, 1883. It destroyed two-thirds of the island and killed some 36,000 people, making it the second deadliest event in recorded history.

Hawai’i due to its location has experienced three tsunamis claiming lives in the past eight decades. The worst one was on April 1, 1946, when a 8.6 magnitude earthquake in the Aleutian Islands sent a tsunami racing across the ocean. It destroyed most of Hilo on the Big Island, killing 159 people. As the earthquake that instigated the tsunami took place in Alaska thousands of kilometers northeast of Hawai’I, no one was prepared when the huge waves washed into the islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

When the 9.5 magnitude—the strongest ever recorded—earthquake hit Chile on May 23, 1960, Hilo, 10,000 km away from the epicenter, was again collateral damage and 63 people died there (the range of the casualties overall varies significantly, from 1,000 to 6,000). On November 29, 1979, a local 7.7 magnitude earthquake shook the Big Island causing two deaths. Such a locally generated tsunami gives hardly any warning time for people to escape.

All of the cities exposed to high tsunami risk are constantly monitoring the situation. Japan, with its multi-hazard risk and frequent earthquakes (in fact, a 5.5 magnitude earthquake shook the southwestern Kagoshima Prefecture while I am writing this on the 3rd of July), is arguably the best prepared country in the world. In this, it is helped by its advanced technologies and well-educated, self-disciplined population. Japan employs a national earthquake and tsunami early warning system operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. It informs people of impending danger through sirens and phone alerts. It has recently deployed drones on the sea in front of popular beaches for tsunami detection. Detailed evacuation maps are maintained by local governments down to the neighborhood level.

Furthermore, millions of people in the country participates in drills and education sessions. September 1st is the National Disaster Prevention Day, with the date commemorating the Great Kantō Earthquake that destroyed Tokyo in 1923.

Scientists in Japan give an 80 percent chance for a mega-quake taking place along the Nankai Trough in the coming 30 years. This revised assessment has led the authorities to require municipalities and businesses to enhance their preparedness plans, to strengthen building earthquake resistance, stockpile food and other necessities, and to update evacuation plans.

Earthquakes and tsunamis cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty. A major event is certain to cause significant damage to infrastructure and the economy. The death of thousands of people in such eventuality is unavoidable. The best we can do is to be aware of the risks and be well prepared. That is our best chance of saving lives.

[Originally published on https://juhauitto.substack.com on July 4, 2025.]

The Whale Warriors

The Whale Warriors: On Board a Pirate Ship in the Battle to Save the World's Largest Mammals by Peter Heller

My rating: 4 of 5 stars


As Japan is again continuing its whaling in the Antarctic waters against international law and the world's public opinion, this book describing the winter 2005-2006 campaign by Sea Shepherd is very timely. On January 9th this year, under the cover of darkness, three Australian Sea Shepherd activists managed to board the Japanese harpoon ship Shonan Maru No. 2 when it was just 26 km off the Australian west coast. The Japanese proceeded to arrest the environmentalists and took them to Tokyo, where a court released them without charges. The reason for the prompt release was probably that Japan does not want to draw undue attention to its controversial whaling activities.

Japan's insistence to go ahead with its extensive whaling is somewhat baffling. As Peter Heller demonstrates in his book, the government is forced to heavily subsidize the companies doing the whale hunt. There is very little demand for whale meat in Japan (only a tenth of the population confesses to ever eating it) and it has to be pushed on school lunch menus in some of the coastal areas with a high price to the tax payers. Tons of whale meat are piling up in freezers. Yet, more and more is brought in every year. Why? The officials cite traditional culture, but even that is a suspect argument. While some fishing communities, notably on the island of Shikoku, traditionally did hunt whales, this was limited to their coastal waters. Large scale commercial whaling only started when Japan built up its ocean going fleet after Commodore Perry's 'black ships' forced the opening of Japan to the outside world in 1854. The tradition certainly is not based in the ancient Japanese culture. The most likely explanation to the Japanese incalcitrance is nationalistic defiance against foreigners trying to tell them what to do. Sounds infantile? Well, it is, but it wouldn't be the first time.

Japan is a member of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), set up in 1946 "to provide for the proper conservation of whale stocks and thus make possible the orderly development of the whaling industry." IWC is thus not a conservation organization, but works for the long-term sustainability of the industry. So it can hardly be accused of sensationalizing the statistics. Yet, IWC recognizes that many whale species are endangered. On its website IWC acknowledges that many stocks of the thirteen species of 'great whales' have been depleted through over-exploitation. The authoritative Red List of endangered species compiled by the World Conservation Union identifies a number of whales as endangered. These include the Blue Whale, Fin Whale (Japan's self-set quota includes 50 Fin Whales per season), North Atlantic Right Whale and North Pacific Right Whale. In addition, a number of species are identified as threatened or vulnerable. Importantly, there is deficient data for most species to determine their status. Because of this state of affairs and the uncertainty about whale numbers, a moratorium on commercial whaling endorsed by IWC has been in place since 1986 (the UN Conference on Environment and Human Health originally proposed such a moratorium in 1972, but it was voted down by Japan, Russia, Iceland, Norway, South Africa and Panama).

As a response, Japan has circumvented the commercial whaling ban by claiming, quite disingenously, that its whaling program is for research purposes. This lethal research has been criticized by scientists and environmentalists alike. There are now non-lethal research methods that can be used to obtain the same data - and even if there were none, the large catch numbers could never be justified by the research argument. In IWC, a coalition led by by the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia has often challenged Japan for its "research" whaling. However, like in the UN, IWC operates on a one nation, one vote basis. Consequently, Japan has been able to purchase the votes of a number of tiny countries by providing them financial support. A number of Caribbean and Pacific Island countries - even the West Africa country of Togo - have voted in line with Japan in IWC following promises of official aid or even just covering travel and expenses of individual government officials. In all fairness, it must be said that there are also other countries that continue to kill whales, including Norway, Iceland, the Danish Faroe Islands and Russia.

When I was on the faculty of the UN University based in Tokyo in the early 1990s, I remember that we were approached by a consultant to the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries who proposed to pay for a study that we would conduct to show that whales were not endangered. During the meeting the gentleman got somewhat carried away and outlined a vision how whales could be domesticated to produce meat and milk for the growing human population. He further accused Western "meat eaters" for an emotional reaction to whaling. When I politely explained that we would gladly consider undertaking such a study, but that we would have to be in control of the study, select the research design and researchers, and that there could be no preagreed conclusions, he got up and promised to get back to us. Needless to say, he never did.

Adventure writer Peter Heller joined Sea Shepherd's ship Farley Mowat on a two-month expedition to the Antarctic in the 2005-2006 season to intercept the Japanese fleet. In 'The Whale Warriors' he provides an interesting and quite balanced account of the challenging trip during which the mostly volunteer crew under the command of Sea Shepherd founder Capt. Paul Watson searches, chases and engages with the Japanese fleet in the Antarctic waters. The book is written in a generally lively manner following the format of Heller's log of the days and weeks at sea, interspersed with information about the history of whaling, the Japanese whaling industry, ecology, the organizations that work against whaling (including Sea Shepherd and Greenpeace), and the international politics surrounding the issues. The format works well overall, but because of the lengthy search for the Japanese whalers and Heller's faithful depiction of the tedium at sea, the book feels a bit long (it could easily have been 50 pages shorter, I think). Even if the author's descriptions of the weather, the sea, the penguins, albatrosses and other sea birds, the icebergs, are beautiful, they also become somewhat repetitive. Finally, it is only on page 215 when the Farley Mowat first finds the location of the Japanese factory boat Nishin Maru and things start speeding up.

In the meantime, we meet the dedicated environmentalists from many countries (USA, Canada, Holland, Sweden, Brazil, South Africa, Australia, France) that make up the crew. These women and men form an interesting bunch, by no means homogenous in their philosophy, but all committed to saving the large, peaceful and highly intelligent animals. Heller observers exchanges that highlight the tensions between unexpected groups, such as between vegans and vegetarians or between conservationists and animal rights activists. His observations are often quite revealing and at best very funny. When the small helicopter onboard returns from a surveillance flight and performs a delicate landing on the deck of the ship rolling in heavy waves, Heller sees how the deck crew took only seconds to secure the landed chopper to the deck. "Pretty good for vegans with advanced degrees," he quips (page 267).

The book also sheds light on the continued rift between Sea Shepherd and Greenpeace. Paul Watson was one of the founders of Greenpeace and served as its Director from 1972 to 1977 when he left to found Sea Shepherd. He was growing frustrated with what he considered ineffective methods of Greenpeace, believing in a need for more direct action. The quartermaster of Farley Mowat on this trip is Emily Hunter, daughter of the Greenpeace co-founder and first President, the late Robert Hunter. Greenpeace manages to locate the Nishin Maru much before Sea Shepherd, but refuses to release the coordinates. The schism appears to be mostly with the top of the organizations and individual crew members of the Greenpeace ship Esperanza leak updates to Watson. As Farley Mowat finally sails to engage with Nishin Maru, Esperanza crew cheer it on. The trouble with Greenpeace non-confrontational tactics is that they only look on and document as the Japanese proceed to slaughter the whales in the most brutal and inhumane manner imaginable.

Whether the Sea Shepherd's more direct approach is any more effective is the question. As the Nishin Maru and its harpoon boats see Farley Mowat approaching they escape, only to move to another location to continue their hunt. Both organizations clearly have done much to bring the vicious and criminal activity to the forefront and thus influencing world opinion.

Yet, politics is what it is. Most of Japan's whaling takes place in the areas designated as off limits under the international moratorium and much in the territorial waters of other countries. Heller points out that if the whaling fleets were from less powerful developing countries, countries like Australia would not hesitate to intercept and arrest them in their territorial waters. Indeed, even earlier this week the Australian prime minister Julia Gillard criticized the Sea Shepherd activists for boarding the Shonan Maru, which was engaged in illegal activities in Australian territorial waters.







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