Evidence for Hope -- A Review

This is an interesting and quite original book. The topic is very important, given the two crises facing humanity today: those of environmental sustainability (or lack thereof) and misinformation / disinformation. Rob van den Berg, the former director of evaluation at the Global Environment Facility and, before that the Netherlands government, tackles these interconnected challenges from a personal perspective. Anchored in an understanding of philosophical traditions, he emphasizes the importance of worldviews to how evidence is perceived. A historian by training, van den Berg explores the historical roots of such worldviews and how the understanding of what constitutes evidence has evolved from religious texts to science to more heterodox views.

He identifies four worldviews that are prevalent today and how they view evidence. These are: sustainable economic growth; social and economic interactions; social, economic and environmental sustainability; and populism, patriotism and conspiracies. He points out that “detachment from evidence may be a contributing factor to our failures to reign in conspiracy theories and/or racist inspired theories of our world” (p. 4).

Van den Berg defines evidence as consisting of observations, explanation, and expectations. He points out that data and observations per se do not constitute evidence. Explanation is based on theories of what the observations tell us. As for expectations, “(I)f we have credible observations that are explained by a credible theory, we can verify that the observations and explanations are correct, by making a hypothesis on what we would observe in the future” (p. 33). Evidence is thus the well-considered and reasoned judgement of the above three.

He is not afraid of expressing controversial views (in the biography at the end of the book he states that he prides himself on "independence of mind"). A main target is the mechanistic perspective adopted by many scientists. He critiques medical science that relies on randomized controlled trials as the only method for testing and approving medicines and treatments (recognizing the commercial interests of the pharmaceutical industry)—and the evaluators who have embraced RTCs as a “gold standard.” He is equally critical of physicists who focus on sub-atomic level and extrapolate these rules to human behavior (he does find some consolation in physics that recognizes the interconnectedness of all things). The strongest arguments are contained in the chapters on causality (9-10). He takes a systems perspective, arguing that higher level systems behave in non-linear ways and human actions are intentional and informed by our own will, rather than predetermined by molecular interactions. 

While causality has fallen out of favor among some physical scientists, the author makes a strong case for the importance of causality in the real world. It is also essential for the applied science and practice of evaluation (as well as policy in general). His argument is that “If we want to be successful in dealing with the sustainability crises, we need to agree on the meaning of causality, and how it helps us get out of the hole we dug for ourselves and our societies and this planet” (p. 179) and that “causality is a key ingredient to come to action based on reasoned judgements of evidence” (pp. 193-194). However, causality in real life is rarely linear: it is nearly always composite and very often complex. Two further concepts that emerge as important refer to blocked causality (in essence, barriers to change) and catalytic causality. Two chapters (10 & 11) focus on systems, including causality for transformational change and how to transform systems.

While environmental, social and economic sustainability is a constant backdrop to the book, it is in the last few chapters where it takes center stage. The penultimate chapter (12) focuses on action for transformational change based on evidence. Referring to the title of the book, the author outlines what he calls “evidence for despair” before moving to “evidence for hope.” He draws primarily from the fast advancements in energy generation and storage, and their catalytic impact. He also cites his own experiences, including with the Transformational Change Learning Partnership of the Climate Investment Funds. The author remains critical of the orthodox economics worldview but he also thinks of ways of harvesting this kind of thinking for transformation. One such way pertains to how market forces are harnessed for the energy transition. He points out that, contrary to the misinformation supplied by the fossil fuel companies and their allies, renewable energy is actually getting cheaper than the traditional alternatives, which will make market transformation inevitable. He calls for the systematization of knowledge into an easily accessible repository, thus turning “a mountain of evidence” into “a fountain of knowledge” (pp. 264-267).

Rob van den Berg is ultimately an optimist. At no point minimizing the challenges we face, he still concludes that the world is on the verge of a sustainability revolution—in fact, it is the only option for humanity. Refreshingly, he notes that many climate activists argue that “humanity needs to scale down, needs to live close to nature, needs to become sober, needs to return to living off the land, needs to stop consuming and so on” (p. 276). However, their approach would basically doom humanity to poverty and scarcity. According to van den Berg, renewable sources have the potential to provide enough energy for all of us not needing to sacrifice our comforts. “The Third Energy Revolution has barely started but shows huge promise!” (p. 278).

Rob van den Berg is extremely well-read in a wide variety of subjects and disciplines, citing equally from philosophical and historical tracts, as well as texts concerning economics and the environment. This alone makes his line of argumentation compelling and fascinating. Despite the heavy content, the book is an easy read. This is largely because of Rob’s writing style, which is quite conversational, drawing on his personal experiences and emphasizing his own viewpoints.

Highly recommended to people from a variety of backgrounds—and a variety of worldviews—this is an important contribution towards how we understand evidence and causality, and how we can all contribute to a sustainability transition.